The Commonalities Driving Regional Insurgency
Commonalities
Insurgency has truly become a continent-wide phenomenon. There are a few commonalities between them:
- Ideology Their interpretation of Islam is very radical, and their preferred target is Christians. They clearly state that they want to establish a caliphate, instructing locals to convert willingly or by force.
- Attack on education Schools, for them a symbol of western Christian civilization. For instance, “Boko Haram”, is an Arabic phrase meaning western education is sinful / forbidden (haram). That is why they attack schools. A country like Burkina Faso has to date lost around 6,000 schools.
- Attack on pluralism They attack all who do not share their vision, also moderate Muslims. For example, Burkina Faso used to be known for a tolerant version of Islam, and syncretism was common. But these groups attack Muslims they deem to be “not Muslim enough”. They believe they must convert these “weak” Muslims in the same way they convert Christians.
Structural issues create fertile ground for the rise of religious extremism
- Climate change: Especially in the Sahel, droughts and floods result in changing migration routes of herders, causing conflicts that expose the fragility of states in the areas of security.
- Absence of the state in certain areas of the country provides space to the terrorist groups. In places like Burkina Faso the state is absent in northern areas (no schools, no public admin, no hospitals, no security forces, etc), and this creates frustrations among the people who feel abandoned and very far from the center of power in the capital. This is a phenomenon repeated across the region, whether it be Bamako (Mali), Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso) or Maputo (Mozambique).
- Geography and demography are also determining factors. Nigeria is the most populous country with over 200 million inhabitants. This places pressure on resources. In Niger, a mother will give birth to 7.5 children. By 2050 the population will have doubled. If nothing is done, this will is a ticking time bomb. Young people are targeted by these terrorist groups. For many this is not a choice – they have not been ideologically manipulated but some also join groups out of desperation.
- The average age on the continent is around 16. What will happen to these young people if nothing is done to help them. They are all on social media and see how people live in other parts of the world (like in Europe) but they have a lack of options/opportunities. To some of them jihadism is the answer and that is why they end up in their ranks.
- Corruption and poor governance. We see military elites taking power to not serve the people.
Terrorist groups exploit these problems where states have failed to find solutions to the problems. These groups arrive at the end of the day with the promise to solve the problems and provide some form of justice.
Certain geopolitical factors drive violence
- The Sahel has become the scene of influence and confrontation between state and non-state actors who come to the region because of natural resources and are at times more powerful than the states. This includes:
- Western powers (like France and the USA) who battle for influence with new partners like China, Gulf countries, Turkey, India and Russia. These actors are present because of natural resources, and a war of influence is being played out in Africa between them.
- Between global business groups who will do almost anything to access natural/mineral resources and have exploited the area and left traces of destruction, like pollution and insecurity. The groups are sometimes more powerful than our states.
- Groups like Wagner that have been accused of human rights violations.
- Drug cartels from Latin America that transport their drugs across the continent via porous borders and act as a huge destabilizing factor. Jihadist groups even wage war to ensure they control those transit routes because there is so much money involved. Drugs finance terrorism in Africa.
